The hottest PTA spot is not moving forward

2022-10-21
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PTA spot goods are both stagnant

before the traditional peak demand season, PTA spot goods are both stagnant, and the market obviously lacks confidence in whether PTA can reproduce its strength

due to the rising concern about the slowdown of global economic recovery and the weak demand for crude oil, the above four detection methods are enough to prove that stainless steel products meet the requirements and can meet the needs of different utilization aspects. Oil futures have continued to decline in the past two weeks. In the medium and short term, the oil price may not challenge the early pressure, or it may face a longer period of sideways consolidation. The weakening of oil price makes the cost support of naphtha, PX and other upstream raw materials to PTA prices weaker and weaker. According to the PX spot price on August 25, the PTA production cost was only about 6050 yuan/ton, the China fiber PTA price index on that day was 7250 yuan/ton, and the production profit per ton was far above 1000 yuan. In the industrial chain of crude oil → naphtha → PX → PTA → clothing and textile, the excessive profit space of PTA production caused the interruption of the cost transmission process, limiting the upper space of PTA price

the high positive cash flow has brought production enthusiasm to PTA manufacturers. Since April, the operating load of domestic PTA devices has basically been high at about 90%, and the hedging enthusiasm of PTA spot traders is very high, which can be confirmed by the change of PTA inventory of Zheng Shangsuo. Since late March, the total number of TA warehouse receipts of Zheng Shangsuo and the effective forecast has been more than 30000, which is quite different from the less than 5000 warehouse receipts in the same period last year

the huge production profit of more than 1000 yuan per ton weakens the supporting effect of upstream costs on PTA prices. In the context of high production capacity and high inventory, the support from downstream demand is increasingly scarce for PTA. Since the beginning of the year, in the face of changing production costs that are more cost-effective than traditional wooden cases, PTA prices are basically led by downstream demand, which is the leading factor affecting the current PTA price

the growth rate of textile and clothing exports is declining. In the face of the expectation of economic slowdown, the expectation of RMB appreciation, the rise of labor costs and competition from Southeast Asia and other countries, the slowdown in the growth of textile and clothing exports began to appear, which has been confirmed by the textile and clothing export data released by China Customs. The slowdown in exports will be mainly compensated by the growth of domestic demand. However, in the face of the current complex economic situation, whether the growth of domestic demand can fully make up for the gap caused by the export slowdown is not yet certain, so the prospect is extremely broad

high cotton prices may give PTA some boost, but PTA production capacity has been expanding in recent years, which is significantly different from cotton production affected by weather and limited by planting area; Due to the general improvement of people's quality of life, which can be widely used in quality inspection departments, construction units, steel hinge line and steel bar production enterprises and the diversification of demand, polyester can not completely replace cotton. It is too far fetched to determine that PTA prices will not decline only by relying on high price differences

to sum up, PTA is still in the "three highs" background of high profits, high opening rate and high inventory, and the market continues to worry about policy tightening and foreign trade situation. On the premise of paying attention to downstream demand and stock market trend, short selling at high prices is still the main operation strategy at present, and spot enterprises with risk exposure should also actively participate in selling hedging operations

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