PTA took advantage of the oil price to lead industrial products
in the silence of yesterday's commodity market, PTA was the first variety to break the deadlock. It not only recovered the long lost 71 in the session, but also the price of 000 yuan/ton when it received the spring testing machine equipment, and it was more powerful than PVC (polyvinyl chloride) and other industrial products
the rise of international crude oil prices around the golden week has driven its downstream industrial products to rise, with PTA rising most significantly. Its main 0912 contract rose by more than 6% in total in the first three trading days of this week, and the volume of transactions was obvious, with 645000, 723000 and 668000 transactions on the three days, respectively. Although there were warehouse shifting factors, the transaction activity in the days after the holiday was also higher than that of the previous November contract. Similarly, as a downstream of crude oil, PTA could rebound sharply in advance, and its advantages in spot supply and demand were also taken into account when making long funds. According to the data of China Chlor Alkali Industry Association, the annual production capacity of PTA in China is about 13 million tons, and the average monthly supply is 950000 tons, while the average monthly consumption of PTA in the same period is 800000 ~ 850000 tons. Even if the import and export of PTA and hidden inventory and other factors are included, it can also be used to quickly adjust the experimental space when it is empty. The excess supply of experimental space is 100000 ~ 200000 tons. Liu Dan, an analyst at Xinhu futures, said that due to the impact of the financial crisis last year, the PTA spot market was characterized as out of stock in the first half of this year, but the downstream rigid demand remained unchanged. Although it has improved now, the social inventory is very low, and the output is not much higher than the consumption, which is far lower than the surplus of PVC and other industrial products
most importantly, the consumption structure of PTA and PVC is also different. The former is mainly used in polyester chips and staple fibers, polyester chips are used in beverage bottle chips and other fields, and staple fibers are used in home textiles and clothing; PVC is mainly used in the construction industry, such as pipes and profiles in engineering, which rose by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. With the decrease of temperature after October, the construction industry, the downstream of PVC, is hardly immune from the impact, while the consumption structure of PTA is less affected by seasonality, and the demand is stable. Liu Dan said, "although the prices of chemical products this year are subject to a three-month cycle, we will try to choose a variety with slightly better fundamentals to be long in the process of capital return after the national day."
however, whether PTA prices can continue to lead industrial products depends on the "face" of international oil prices in the future. According to Xinhu futures' analysis of the linkage between crude oil and PTA prices, from the historical observation of oil price fluctuations, the international oil price range of $63~67 seems to be a buffer zone for the correlation between the two, and the rise in oil prices has little impact on PTA. However, when crude oil prices continue to rise, reaching $70 or even higher, the positive correlation between the two continues to increase. Liu Dan said: "although PTA is leading, the correlation of crude oil cannot be ignored. Compared with the sharp rise in July and the decline from August to September, PTA's performance in the days after the festival is tentatively intermediate YSD to preserve the original data."
note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content