The hottest PTA will usher in a large-scale adjust

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PTA will usher in a large-scale adjustment next month

since November, the PTA futures market has experienced a roller coaster market, with 1105 contracts retreating back to 10000 lines after an upward attack of 11750 points failed. From the perspective of the middle line, the author believes that due to the strong expectation of policy tightening, as time enters the end of November, terminal consumption will weaken, and PTA futures prices will turn into the middle space

the liquidity of the peripheral market is still abundant, and the expectation of tightening the policy is strong.

with the clarification of the second quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the speculation on quantitative easing in the capital market has basically ended. The focus of the market began to shift. The first focus was the phenomenon that the higher treasury bond yield and lower LIBOR in the U.S. financial market after the introduction of eq2 were not completely consistent with the policy effect. Investors questioned whether eq2 could stimulate economic growth. The second focus is that the sovereign debt of some European countries is once again on the table. However, with the launch of the European rescue mechanism, Irish bond yields have declined since a week ago, and the problem will gradually ease. Judging from the LIBOR of the US dollar during this period, global liquidity is still abundant. For the European debt crisis, we need to pay more attention to the repayment time point of Greek and Irish government bonds due in 2011. Since March, some Greek and Irish government bonds have matured one after another, requiring a large amount of funds to be raised. The expected maturity funds of the European banking industry in a single quarter also reached the peak of the year in the first and second quarters of 2011, which may cause the market to worry again

the moving range of fixture in China is generally between 1 meter and 1.5 meters. In October, CPI reached 4.4%, with a month on month increase of 0.7%, which is significantly higher than that in the same period last year, indicating that the current price rise momentum is strong. On November 17, the State Council (1) issued a series of policies and measures to stabilize consumer prices and ensure the basic livelihood of the people. In the short term, with the large decline in the price of international agricultural products, combined with the administrative control means of domestic prices, inflation may be lower than the rapidly rising market inflation expectations in the short term, which may become an important factor in market fluctuations. In addition, we believe that the trend of rising prices in the medium term will continue, but the central bank will still introduce a series of portfolio policies in the later stage, and the expectation of policy tightening is still strong

generally speaking, although the recent market hype about the Irish crisis has come to an end, and the demand for the US dollar to fall again, with the further improvement of the US economic data in the later stage, the market will gradually weaken the expectation of the Federal Reserve to introduce further easing measures, so that the US dollar may continue to rebound. Given that the current market has fully overdrawn the expectation of fundamental recovery, once the liquidity expectation is reversed, commodities are bound to fall to a level consistent with the fundamental price. In addition, China, one of the biggest driving forces of the commodity market, is under tightening pressure due to domestic monetary policy. Under the continuous attack of policy combination, the commodities stimulated by China's demand are bound to have callback pressure, which will drive the pressure consolidation of domestic related commodities, and PTA is also inevitable

the center of gravity of crude oil is still expected to improve, and PX support is still there.

NYMEX crude oil futures prices rose by $90/barrel in early November, and fell to $80/barrel after fruitless first-line support. We maintain our previous view that the progress of destocking in the crude oil market will determine the height of the rebound in oil prices in the fourth quarter, and the trend of the US dollar is one of the leading factors in the recent crude oil market. From the perspective of funds, CFTC data shows that the net long position of the fund continues to increase, and it is still optimistic about the future market. However, the loose long position has increased to the highest point in half a year, and the high-level callback is inevitable. Generally speaking, although the recent oil price trend has been corrected and sorted out under the pressure of China's tightening policies, due to the gradual recovery of global demand, especially the strong demand in China, which will support the rising oil price in the future, the focus of oil price will still maintain an oscillatory recovery trend, thus forming a certain support for energy and chemicals

pta industrial chain, although the spot has shown a trend of rising and falling recently, the contract goods remain high. The three major PX suppliers and five users in Asia reached a contract settlement agreement in November at $1220/ton CFR Asia, the highest level since August 2008. Although the loss of PX plant in the first half of the year seriously reduced the operating rate, from a longer-term perspective, since only 1 million tons of PX plant of Urumqi Petrochemical was put into operation in 2011, and the production capacity of PTA is expected to be 2.8 million tons, the market will again show a supply bias, and it will launch a new energy power business with lithium cathode materials as the core globally, with a tight layout. We believe that the current market is still uncertain, but the PX strong grid is still expected to continue in the short term, which has a certain support for PTA costs

pta supply and demand is still tight, inventory handling may impact the market

although the current PTA unit operating rate index is restored to 95, the supply and demand is still tight. According to CCF statistics, in 2010, the output of polyester fiber was 18.1205 million tons, and the average monthly polyester consumption was 2.013 million tons, while the average start-up of polyester in October was 83.7%, higher than the average level in September. According to CCF data, as of November 19, the average start-up of polyester was 84.7%, and the PTA consumption in November should be higher than 1.75 million tons. At the beginning of November, many sets of PTA devices in South China, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places were overhauled or shut down unexpectedly. The PTA supply in November may be the same as that in October, which led to a tight supply and demand of PTA again. The reduction of contract customers by a mainstream supplier in Zhejiang is the best proof. On the whole, at least nearly 2million tons of polyester new lines were put into operation in the third and fourth quarters, and the polyester production capacity increased significantly faster than PTA. The supply-demand relationship of PTA remained tight throughout the fourth quarter

we still need to pay attention to the current PTA social inventory. At present, the emerging inventory is between 1.5 million and 1.8 million tons. When the inventory increases to a certain extent, it will eventually need to be digested. The end of the year is the financial year of all companies in the industrial chain, and there is bound to be some inventory that needs to be handled, or it will have a certain impact on the market, and the inventory removal time point is likely to appear in December. In addition, although the sharp rise in spot prices in the early stage has made social inventory recessive, with the strengthening of national macro-control, the fall in commodity prices is bound to expose inventory pressure again. Coupled with the national tightening of liquidity, capital pressure will also make some inventory flow into the market, thus changing market expectations

downstream consumption gradually weakened, and exports shrank month on month

since mid November, due to the high prices of polyester and cotton, the enthusiasm of downstream weaving enterprises to catch up has weakened, and they are basically based on the consumption of early inventory. According to CCF data, polyester factories' production and sales weakened, and inventories increased for many days, while CCF polyester load index also fell to 84%, and some polyester bottle chip factories reduced production. Because the round machine order receiving situation in Xiaoshao area is not rational, the startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been reduced to 70%, and the fabric inventory of weaving factories has increased slightly, most of which have been at a loss; New orders for downstream texturing, warp knitting machines and water jet looms in November fell compared with the previous period, but the trading volume of the textile city was 6-7 million meters, and the market demand was normal. We believe that the short-term market is supported by the settlement of raw material prices, and the downstream weaving industry has a certain demand for replenishment driven by the demand for invoices at the end of the month. However, in the medium term, due to the continuous decline in downstream orders and the lack of purchasing power support, polyester factories will still be dominated by shipments

in terms of exports, in October 2010, the export of textiles and clothing was US $17.8 billion, an increase of 21.5% year-on-year and a decrease of 11% month on month. Judging from the transaction situation of the 108th Canton Fair, due to the fear of exchange rate changes and rising raw material costs and other factors, textile and clothing transactions totaled US $4.56 billion, down 2.6% from the 107th session, including US $1billion in clothing and clothing accessories, down 8.5% from the 107th session. The decline in export orders will lead to the decline in the demand for cotton and cotton yarn in the later period, which will affect the consumption of PTA

pta may rebound in the near future, but the middle line will turn to the middle space

looking at the current market, the strong rise of PTA futures price comes from the cost increase and demand pull, but also interspersed with larger speculative factors. Although the abundant market liquidity will continue, the normalization of monetary policy will become inevitable, and the trend of future commodity markets will become more complex. Admittedly, the recent PTA fundamentals are still good. With the downstream entering the invoice and replenishment market at the end of the month, and the price of contract goods is about to be settled, the possibility of a small rebound cannot be ruled out in the short term; However, in terms of the middle line, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio twice within the 9th, which indicates that some combinations will be introduced in the future. As the time enters late November, terminal consumption will soon enter the off-season, and PTA futures prices are expected to move into the middle space under the macro pressure. Judging from the characteristics of the industry, December will usher in a large-scale adjustment, and the de stocking of traders' spot goods will be the main driving force

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